15 Products That May Vanish by Summer Due to Supply Shortages
The international trade wars provoked by President Donald Trump's tariffs are becoming very real. Experts expect the increase in importation and exportation taxes to have a profound impact not only on prices, but on the inventory of everyday goods sooner rather than later. U.S. importers are already canceling and delaying orders from China, subject to tariffs as high as 145%. Other companies are front-loading imports from countries with lower import taxes before the 90-day pause ends July 9. Overall, imports are slowing down, "because importers are not sure what the ultimate demand for products will be. They know they have to raise prices because they are paying the tariffs," Jason Miller, a professor who studies supply chains at Michigan State University, told the Christian Science Monitor this week. According to experts, these 15 products will likely vanish or become significantly more expensive by summer.
Toys
Toys, which are regularly made in China, could be few and far between by the holiday season. When asked about a potential toy shortage leading up to the holiday season, Trump didn't deny it was a possibility. "A young lady, a 10-year-old girl, 9-year-old girl, 15-year-old girl, doesn't need 37 dolls. She can be very happy with two or three or four or five," Trump told reporters. "Well, maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls, you know? And maybe the two dolls will cost a couple of bucks more."
Kitchen Appliances
Small kitchen appliances are also often made in China, subject to tariffs as high as 145%. As a result, some retailers are canceling or delaying orders. "For many of these goods there are no alternatives to those made in China," says Miller.
Home Goods
The same goes for home goods, including storage bins and home furnishings. Many of these items are made in China, and will become more expensive to import with limited alternatives. However, Miller maintains that the shock won't be immediate, as there are currently large quantities. However, the made-in-China products could become unavailable or sold at much higher prices by June or July.
Imported Wine and Spirits
Imported wine and spirits will also become harder to find – and more expensive. Chris Lianos, who runs a wine shop in Somerville, Massachusetts, told CSM that while he hasn't been impacted so far, as distributors stocked warehouses in anticipation of tariffs, customers purchasing habits have changed. "People are holding back. It's the uncertainty of what comes next," he says. As inventory dwindles, prices will likely rise on imported wine and spirits by summer, and stores will likely start substituting with domestic alternatives. "Maybe we'll get a better deal from the California wineries," he says.
Stationery and Planners
Small items like stationery and planners, imported from abroad, may disappear due to import costs. Simplified, a woman-owned stationery company in Florida, filed a lawsuit last month against the Trump administration's use of emergency powers to impose tariffs that it alleged had "inflicted economic and competitive harm."
Halloween Costumes
Many Halloween costumes are made in China, including those from Rasta Imposta. Robert Berman, the company's owner, designs the costumes sold in big box stores. His product usually ships from China around now to arrive in stores by fall. However, his goods "are sitting in containers, because 145% is just astronomical," he tells CSM. He is looking into manufacturing alternatives from other countries. "If we can't get our product in we'll have to close our doors and put everyone on furlough," he says.
Christmas Decorations
A lot of holiday décor is also from China, relying on a longer lead time, and may also not arrive in time. "If Donald Trump doesn't move quickly, it's going to come in too late," says Mr. Berman.
Fast Fashion
Inexpensive Direct-to-consumer brands like Shein and Temu, famous for fast fashion, relied upon a "de minimis" shipment exemption to sell cheap goods to U.S. consumers. However, now that Trump has done away with the exemption, shipments of under $800 will be taxed, resulting in fewer quantities and fewer options, Nathan Strang, director of ocean freight at Flexport, a company that brokers customs clearance and logistics for importers and exporters, told Huffington Post. "You're going to start to see less quantities," he said.
Fireworks
Fourth of July might look different his year. According to the Huffington Post, it could be the first holiday when you might notice a "major shortage" as fireworks are made predominantly in China. These types of products "have no alternative" supply maker, Chris Tang, a University of California, Los Angeles professor who studies global supply chain management, says.
Grills
Grills are another product regularly made in China, with most units selling in the spring or summer. There will likely be a shortage as people try to buy the remaining inventory as soon as possible.
Back-To-School Supplies
Summer is a popular time for back-to-school shopping, with many of these items produced in China. According to Strange, goods can take 30-plus days to get manufactured and shipped from China to the U.S. As production times vary, their disappearance won't be uniform. But he believes options will overall be limited. Typically, "they do one style, they retool, they reset, and they do the next style, and they continue to do that throughout the year," Strang said. For example, a child might want a blue backpack, "and there are no blue backpacks. Like, that's the kind of thing I think a lot of people will notice," he said.
Home Decor
You might notice stock dwindling at your local Home Goods, as many less expensive home decor items are made in China and shipped in bulk. These items are "pretty margin sensitive, and so I think that's going to be pretty impacted as well," Casey Armstrong, chief marketing officer of ShipBob, a global fulfillment and supply chain platform, told Huffington Post.
Cheap Household Essentials
Plastic cups or other disposable, cheap household essentials might also dwindle in stock. Retailers for "Dollar Store essentials" like soaps, batteries, toothpaste, and disposable plates "will be impacted first," as these types of goods have tight profit margins, says Armstrong.
Consumer Electronics
"Consumer electronics could probably see the biggest hit," Strang said. Even those made domestically often rely on made-in-China parts. High-end electronics, like Apple Phones on shelves, could also become "very expensive," Tang says.
Replacement Parts Of Appliances
If your dishwasher or refrigerator breaks, it could become more expensive (and more difficult) to fix. Many replacement parts like light bulbs, filters, cords, and grill parts are made in China, and production could be delayed as companies shift their focus to bigger ticket items. "Supply chains don't often prioritize reordering those until they're running low. And a lot of these are sourced from China," Armstrong said.
Here Is How Long It Will All Take
How long will it take to impact customers? According to Tang, price increases will likely happen "in three to four weeks," followed by emptier shelves in a "slow bleed" over time style. "If nothing changes, I think the summer months is when we'll really start to see it," Armstrong said. "First, things like toys will vanish. And then maybe, your favorite apparel items. And then, maybe some of the weird replacement parts that you didn't know came from China."
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