What Trump’s New Tariffs Mean for Grocery Prices Now
With President Trump’s international tariffs finally going into effect on August 7, what should consumers in the U.S. expect? Tariffs are essentially a tax levied on goods imported from foreign countries, from maple syrup to medications. American companies importing items face paying a higher cost for these items, and subsequently pass those costs on to consumers through higher prices. How this impacts prices at the grocery checkout depends on factors such as how much of the cost the importer is willing to absorb. Deals with China and Mexico are still pending, but other countries are facing tariffs as high as 50%. Here’s what that could mean for grocery prices this fall.
Beef From Brazil
Brazil is being hit with a 50% tariff, which means meat prices in the U.S. could soon become even more expensive. Brazilian beef-packers exported around 181,000 metric tons of beef worth $1 billion to the U.S. in the first half of this 2025, Reuters reports.
Wine and Cheese
The European Union is facing 15% tariffs on most goods, including wine and cheese from countries like Germany, France, and Italy. “Many businesses will also be exploring broader supply chain shifts – for example, routing through lower-tariff countries such as Mexico,” says Gemma Thompson, senior consultant at procurement consultancy Proxima.
Chocolate
Switzerland’s 39% tariff will impact everything from luxury watches to cocoa powder and chocolate. “I expect that our industry will lose customers in the United States, and that sales volumes will decrease heavily,” Roger Wehrli, chief executive of the Association of Swiss Chocolate Manufacturers, told The Associated Press.
Medications
India’s 25% tariff could impact medications in the U.S. “In May 2025, India exported $8.83B and imported $3.63B from the United States,” according to the OEC. Clothes, especially cotton, could also be impacted. “In May 2025, the top exports of India to United States were Telecom Instruments ($2.33B), Drug Formulations, Biologicals ($740M), and Rmg Cotton Incl Accessories ($310M),” OEC says.
Fresh Fruit and Vegetables
Countries like Brazil and Peru supply a significant amount of fresh fruit and vegetables to the U.S. “Mexican avocado prices have been so high that Peruvian avocado is becoming competitive, even with tariffs,” said Mariano Bustamante, general manager of Añay Peruvian Fruits.
Coffee
The 50% tariff levied against Brazil could make coffee prices, which are already sky-high, more expensive than ever. “We don’t have an easy ability to replace Brazilian coffee,” said James Watson, senior beverage analyst with Rabobank. “For the most part, most of what you drink is all arabica.”
European Olive Oil
The U.S. imports high-quality olive oil from EU countries like Italy, Greece, and Spain. “It is worth noting that approximately 95% of the olive oil consumed in the U.S. is imported, so such policies will affect end users,” Cristóbal Valdés, CEO of world’s largest olive oil producer Deoleo, told CNBC. “Beyond institutional dialogue, we are strengthening our value proposition in the U.S. through consumer awareness campaigns about the benefits of olive oil and a renewed commitment to our brands—especially Bertolli, which today represents trust and consistency for American consumers.”
